Signals

Live edges on Kalshi daily-temperature markets, recomputed every few minutes.

How a signal is made

  1. Forecast — the latest NWS point forecast for the city (e.g. Phoenix high 111°F, σ ≈ 1.5°F).
  2. Model probability — that forecast is converted to a probability the market resolves YES, adjusting for NWS rounding rules, the diurnal temperature curve, and live station observations as the day progresses.
  3. Edge — model probability minus the market price. A market at 74¢ that the model puts at 0.2% has a −73.8¢ edge: buy NO.
  4. Sizing — a fractional-Kelly stake per $100 bankroll, shown below. Below a minimum edge, the signal is "no trade".

The same numbers drive the public paper bot — every trade it makes links back to a row like these.

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