Calibration
When the market says 30%, does it happen 30% of the time? Measured against exchange-settled ground truth — the price an hour before settlement vs. what actually happened. Deviation from the diagonal is exploitable.
Calibration curve — whole universe
Not enough settled history for this slice yet.
The dashed grey line is what the market predicted; the solid line is what actually happened. Where the solid line sits below the dashed one, the market is overpricing that probability — the classic favourite–longshot bias.
The alpha map
Every series with enough settled history, ranked by how far its prices sit from reality. A positive bias means the market systematically overprices YES — fade it.
| Series | Settled | Bias | Brier | Reading |
|---|